Research

America’s Tax Gap Report 2026: The Definitive Breakdown of U.S. Tax Noncompliance

By The Ledgerism Editorial Team · The Ledgerism Brief Editorial Team produces original, methodology-disclosed accounting and tax research—data trackers, databases, and reference guides built to be the most-cited source in the field. Every figure is verified against primary sources including FASB, the IRS, the PCAOB, NASBA, the AICPA, and state boards of accountancy.

The tax gap is the difference between the total federal tax that taxpayers owe and the amount they pay voluntarily and on time. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is the only official producer of U.S. tax gap figures. Its most recent release, published October 10, 2024, projects a gross tax gap of $696 billion for Tax Year (TY) 2022 and a net tax gap of $606 billion after late payments and enforcement. This report compiles every verified figure from that release and its companion data, distinguishes measured estimates from projections, breaks the gap down by component and by tax type, and places it alongside IRS enforcement collections and independent analysis from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

A critical labeling note used throughout this report: the TY2014-2016 figures are estimates built on audited compliance data from the National Research Program (NRP). The TY2017-2019, TY2020, TY2021, and TY2022 figures are projections that assume reporting compliance behavior has not changed since TY2014-2016. They are predictions of the dollar size of the gap as the economy grows, not predictions of changing taxpayer behavior. No figure in this report is a directly measured TY2022 audit result.

Executive summary

• The projected gross tax gap for the United States was $696 billion for Tax Year 2022 (IRS, October 2024 release, projection).
• The projected net tax gap, after enforced and other late payments of $90 billion, was $606 billion for Tax Year 2022 (IRS, October 2024, projection).
• The projected voluntary compliance rate (VCR) was 85.0 percent for Tax Year 2022, essentially unchanged from the 84.9 percent projected for Tax Year 2021 and the 85.0 percent measured for Tax Years 2014-2016 (IRS, October 2024).
• Underreporting was the dominant component at $539 billion, or about 77 percent of the gross tax gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS, October 2024, projection).
• Individual income tax accounted for the largest share of the gap, contributing $514 billion to the gross tax gap and $447 billion to the net tax gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS, October 2024, projection).
• The IRS collected approximately $5.3 trillion in gross revenue in Fiscal Year 2025 and approximately $5.1 trillion in Fiscal Year 2024 (IRS Data Book FY2025 and FY2024).
• The net tax gap for Tax Year 2021 was revised up to $617 billion, and the gross tax gap for TY2021 was revised to $708 billion, both higher than the TY2022 projections, primarily because of higher estimated true tax liability driven by capital gains (IRS, October 2024).
• The IRS, GAO, and CBO all caution that corporation income tax, income from flow-through entities, foreign and illegal-source income, digital assets, and pandemic-era credits are under-measured in the official tax gap, so the true gap is likely understated (IRS Pub 5869, 2024; GAO).

Key findings

1. The projected gross tax gap was $696 billion for Tax Year 2022 in the United States (IRS Research, Applied Analytics & Statistics, Publication 5869, October 2024, projection).
2. The projected net tax gap was $606 billion for Tax Year 2022 in the United States (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
3. The voluntary compliance rate was a projected 85.0 percent for Tax Year 2022, meaning about 15 cents of every dollar of true tax owed was not paid voluntarily and on time (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024).
4. The net compliance rate, which adds enforced and late payments, was a projected 86.9 percent for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024).
5. Underreporting of tax on timely filed returns was $539 billion, about 77 percent of the gross gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
6. Underpayment of tax reported on time was $94 billion, about 14 percent of the gross gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
7. Nonfiling was $63 billion, about 9 percent of the gross gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
8. Individual income tax contributed $514 billion to the gross tax gap for Tax Year 2022, the single largest tax-type component (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
9. The individual income tax underreporting gap alone was $381 billion, about 55 percent of the entire gross gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
10. Employment tax, including self-employment tax, contributed $111 billion of underreporting and a $119 billion net gap for Tax Year 2022 (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
11. Corporation income tax underreporting was $44 billion for Tax Year 2022, and the corporation net gap was $40 billion (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
12. Estate tax contributed roughly $2 billion of underreporting plus about $1 billion of nonfiling for Tax Year 2022, less than one half of one percent each of the gross gap (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, projection).
13. Income subject to little or no third-party information reporting, such as nonfarm sole proprietor income, is misreported at a 55 percent rate, versus 1 percent for wages subject to information reporting and withholding (IRS Pub 5869, October 2024, based on TY2014-2016 data).
14. A one percentage point increase in the voluntary compliance rate would yield roughly $46 billion in additional annual receipts at TY2022 liability levels (IRS news release IR-2024-262, October 10, 2024).
15. The IRS collected nearly $77.6 billion in net collections through its collection (enforcement) function in Fiscal Year 2024, a 13.6 percent increase over the prior year (IRS Data Book FY2024, May 2025).

Section 1: The headline numbers (Tax Year 2022 projection)

The IRS released its most recent tax gap figures on October 10, 2024, in Publication 5869, “Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022.” These are the most current official U.S. tax gap figures available as of June 2026.

The projected annual gross tax gap for TY2022 was $696 billion. A projected $90 billion of that gross gap will eventually be paid, either voluntarily but late or through IRS enforcement, producing a net tax gap of $606 billion. The estimated total true tax liability for TY2022 was $4,635 billion (about $4.6 trillion).

Two compliance ratios summarize this. The voluntary compliance rate (VCR), defined as tax paid voluntarily and on time divided by total true tax, was 85.0 percent for TY2022. The net compliance rate (NCR), which adds enforced and other late payments to the numerator, was 86.9 percent for TY2022.

The TY2022 gross gap of $696 billion was slightly lower than the revised TY2021 gross projection of $708 billion, a decrease of about $12 billion or roughly 2 percent. The IRS attributes this to a decline in estimated true tax liability, primarily a decrease in capital gains, even as the economy grew. Gross Domestic Product grew about 9 percent from 2021 to 2022, which underscores that the gap and the economy do not move in lockstep.

What the numbers mean. The stability of the VCR near 85 percent across nearly a decade is partly a methodological artifact: the projections assume reporting compliance behavior has not changed since TY2014-2016. The dollar gap grows mainly because the economy and tax liabilities grow, not because compliance is deteriorating. This is the single most important interpretive caveat in the entire dataset.

Section 2: The three components

The gross tax gap is built from three behaviors. The table below shows the TY2022 projection and the historical series.

Source: IRS Publication 5869, October 2024 (projection). Shares are IRS-stated and may not sum exactly due to rounding.

Underreporting is by far the largest driver. Within it, individual income tax underreporting alone ($381 billion) makes up about 55 percent of the entire gross gap. Business income reported on individual returns is projected to be the largest single contributor inside the individual underreporting gap, at about 28 percent of the gross gap.

Underpayment is the smallest behavioral category but the most “visible” to the IRS because the tax was already reported. About $80 billion of the $94 billion underpayment gap is individual income tax.

Nonfiling covers required returns never filed or filed late. The IRS produces nonfiling estimates for only three tax types: individual income tax ($53 billion in TY2022), self-employment tax ($9 billion), and estate tax (about $1 billion).

A methodology note that materially affected the series: the IRS improved its individual nonfiling method to better account for taxpayers who eventually file late rather than never filing, which reduced the TY2021 nonfiling projection by $20 billion. Updated administrative data raised the TY2021 underreporting projection by $11 billion (of which corporation income tax accounted for $9 billion) and raised the TY2021 underpayment projection by $29 billion. These revisions are why TY2021 figures shifted between releases.

Section 3: Breakdown by tax type

The IRS segments the gap by type of tax. The following table reproduces the TY2022 projection across components and tax types, drawn from Tables 2 and 3 of Publication 5869.

Source: IRS Publication 5869, Tables 2 and 3, October 2024 (projection). “<$0.5” denotes less than $0.5 billion. Self-employment tax nonfiling ($9B) is reported within the employment-tax family. Net tax gap by type subtracts enforced and other late payments from each type’s gross gap; detail does not sum exactly to the $606B total due to rounding and the separate excise component.

Gross contribution by tax type for TY2022: individual income tax contributes $514 billion to the gross gap; employment tax is the second largest; corporation income tax is third; estate and excise taxes are minor.

Enforced and other late payments by tax type for TY2022 (total $90 billion): about $68 billion (roughly 75 percent) is individual income tax; about $10 billion (11 percent) is corporation income tax; about $8 billion (9 percent) is employment tax; about $4 billion (5 percent) is estate tax; excise tax is negligible.

Corporation income tax detail for TY2022: of the $44 billion corporation underreporting gap, small corporations (assets under $10 million) account for about $19 billion and large corporations (assets of $10 million or more) about $25 billion.

Limitation flag. The IRS explicitly states that the projections “do not fully represent noncompliance” for corporation income tax, flow-through entities, foreign or illegal activities, digital assets, and pandemic credits, because data are lacking. The corporation figure in particular is widely regarded by the IRS and GAO as a floor, not a ceiling.

Section 4: Voluntary compliance rate over time

The VCR is the most-cited single statistic in tax administration. The table below is the full official series the IRS shows in Figure 2 and its news releases.

Sources: IRS Publication 5869 (October 2024) for TY2014-2016 through TY2022; IRS news releases and “The Tax Gap” page for TY2001 through TY2013. TY2001 net and TY2006 figures are from prior IRS tax gap studies. The TY2014-2016 estimate is the most recent based on audited NRP compliance data; all later years are projections.

What the series shows. Voluntary compliance has been remarkably stable, between about 82 and 85 percent, for more than two decades. The dollar gap has roughly doubled from TY2001 to TY2022, but that growth tracks the growth of the economy and total tax liability rather than a collapse in compliance. The jump in the dollar gap between the TY2014-2016 estimate ($496B) and the TY2022 projection ($696B), about $200 billion, is described by the IRS as primarily reflecting economic growth.

Section 5: Enforcement and collections (Fiscal Year data)

Tax gap figures are organized by tax year; IRS operational collections are reported by fiscal year. They are related but not directly comparable, because enforcement in any fiscal year recovers tax owed across many prior tax years.

• The IRS collected approximately $5.3 trillion in gross revenue in Fiscal Year 2025 (IRS Data Book FY2025, released June 5, 2026).
• The IRS collected approximately $5.1 trillion in gross revenue in Fiscal Year 2024, up almost 9 percent from about $4.7 trillion in FY2023 (IRS Data Book FY2024, May 2025).
• The IRS processed 271.4 million federal tax returns and supplemental documents in FY2025, including almost 162.8 million individual income tax returns (IRS Data Book FY2025).
• Net collections from the IRS collection (enforcement) function totaled nearly $77.6 billion in FY2024, a 13.6 percent increase over FY2023 (IRS Data Book FY2024).
• The IRS collected more than $16 billion through installment agreements in FY2024, up more than 12 percent year over year (IRS Data Book FY2024).
• The IRS closed 505,514 tax return audits in FY2024, producing about $29 billion in recommended additional tax (IRS Data Book FY2024).
• The IRS assessed about $84.1 billion in civil penalties in FY2024 (IRS Data Book FY2024).

Note: FY2025 Data Book enforcement detail (audits closed, recommended additional tax, civil penalties) was not included in the IRS news-release summary as of this report’s date; the FY2024 figures above are the most recent verified detail and are labeled accordingly.

Section 6: Independent analysis (GAO and CBO)

Two nonpartisan bodies assess the tax gap and the economics of closing it.

GAO. The Government Accountability Office has kept “Enforcement of Tax Laws” on its High-Risk List for years. In its February 2023 report (GAO-23-106448, “Tax Gap: Modest Reductions in the Gap Could Yield Large Fiscal Benefits”), GAO confirmed the IRS figure that taxpayers collectively pay about 85 percent of what they owe and that the tax gap was about $496 billion per year for TY2014-2016. GAO has recommended that the IRS digitize returns to better detect underreporting, address sole-proprietor noncompliance in its operating plan, and that Congress expand IRS math-error correction authority. The IRS’s own arithmetic, cited in IR-2024-262, is that a one percentage point rise in the VCR would generate about $46 billion in additional annual revenue.

CBO. The Congressional Budget Office analyzes how IRS funding affects revenue. CBO has estimated that, on average, each $1 spent reducing the tax gap returns about $2.50 in revenue over a decade. CBO estimated the roughly $80 billion of IRS funding in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act would raise roughly $200 billion in revenue over ten years before accounting for the spending. CBO also estimated in 2024 that a $20 billion rescission of IRS funding would reduce revenues by about $44 billion, consistent with the same roughly 2.5-to-1 ratio.

These return-on-investment figures are estimates and projections, sensitive to assumptions about how enforcement spending is deployed and how taxpayers respond; they should not be presented as guaranteed outcomes.

Original synthesis: three derived insights

These three analyses are derived by The Ledgerism Brief from the Tier-1 figures above. Each states its formula, inputs, and limitations. They are arithmetic combinations of official IRS figures, not new estimates of noncompliance.

Insight 1: The “information-reporting dividend”

Logic: Compare misreporting rates by income visibility. The IRS reports that income subject to substantial information reporting and withholding (wages) is misreported at 1 percent, income with information reporting but no withholding at 6 percent, and income with little or no information reporting (sole-proprietor income) at 55 percent.
Derived figure: The misreporting rate for low-visibility income is 55 times that of withholding-covered income (55 percent vs 1 percent). This single structural fact explains why individual business income drives about 28 percent of the entire gross gap.
Inputs: IRS Pub 5869, “Effect of Information Reporting” section and Figure 3 (TY2014-2016 data).
Limitations: The 55x ratio is built on TY2014-2016 audit data carried forward; it predates large-scale gig-economy and digital-asset reporting changes and may understate current low-visibility income.

Insight 2: Net-gap recovery rate by tax type

Logic: Divide enforced and other late payments by the gross gap for each tax type to show how much of each type’s gap is eventually recovered.
Derived figures for TY2022: Individual income tax recovers about $68B of a $514B gross gap, a recovery rate of roughly 13 percent. Corporation income tax recovers about $10B of about $50B gross, roughly 20 percent. Employment tax recovers about $8B of about $127B gross, roughly 6 percent. Estate tax recovers about $4B of a small gross gap, the highest recovery rate of any major type.
Inputs: IRS Pub 5869 enforced-and-late-payment-by-tax-type narrative and gross-by-type figures, October 2024.
Limitations: Gross-by-type figures are IRS-stated approximations; recovery rates are ratios of projections and inherit all projection uncertainty. Employment-tax gross used here ($127B) is the sum of nonfiling, underreporting, and underpayment components and may differ slightly from IRS rounding.

Insight 3: The compliance-rate value of one point

Logic: At TY2022 true tax liability of $4,635 billion, each one percentage point of VCR equals 1 percent of $4,635 billion.
Derived figure: One VCR point is worth about $46 billion per year, matching the IRS’s own stated figure in IR-2024-262 and validating the arithmetic. Closing the entire 15-point voluntary-compliance gap would, in theory, recover the full $696 billion gross gap, but no tax system has ever approached 100 percent voluntary compliance.
Inputs: IRS Pub 5869 (true tax liability) and IR-2024-262 (the $46B figure).
Limitations: This is a static, mechanical calculation; it ignores behavioral responses, administrative cost, and the practical ceiling on achievable compliance.

Tables

Table A: Full historical series (gross, net, VCR)

Reproduced in Section 4 above.

Table B: TY2014-2016 estimate vs TY2022 projection, by component ($B)

Source: IRS Publication 5869, Table 1, October 2024.

Table C: TY2022 detail by tax type and component

Reproduced in Section 3 above.

Charts to create

1. “Two decades of stable compliance, a doubling gap.” Dual-axis line chart: gross tax gap (bars, $B) and VCR (line, percent) for TY2001 through TY2022. Data: Table A. Source: IRS Pub 5869 and prior studies. Insight: the gap grows with the economy while compliance holds near 85 percent. Citation-worthy because it visually corrects the common misreading that a rising dollar gap means falling compliance.

2. “Where the gap comes from.” Stacked bar of the three components for TY2022 ($539B / $94B / $63B). Data: Section 2. Source: IRS Pub 5869. Insight: underreporting is more than three-quarters of the problem. Highly quotable single image.

3. “The visibility curve.” Bar chart of misreporting rate by information-reporting visibility: 1 percent (withholding), 6 percent (reporting only), 55 percent (little/no reporting). Source: IRS Pub 5869 Figure 3. Insight: third-party reporting is the strongest compliance lever. This is the most policy-relevant chart in the dataset.

4. “Gross gap by tax type, TY2022.” Horizontal bar: individual $514B, employment, corporation, estate. Source: IRS Pub 5869. Insight: individual income tax dwarfs all other types.

5. “$2.50 for $1: the enforcement ROI.” Simple ratio visual pairing CBO’s per-dollar return with the IRS’s $46B-per-VCR-point figure. Sources: CBO publication 60037; IRS IR-2024-262. Insight: frames the fiscal case journalists most often ask about.

Methodology

Source-selection criteria. Only Tier-1 primary sources were used for every headline figure: the IRS Research, Applied Analytics & Statistics division (Publication 5869, the official tax gap projection); the IRS news release IR-2024-262; the IRS “The Tax Gap” statistics page; the IRS Data Book (Publication 55-B) for FY2024 and FY2025; GAO reports; and CBO publications. Secondary sources were used only to locate primary documents, never as the basis for a figure.

Estimate vs projection. This report labels every figure. TY2014-2016 and earlier are estimates grounded in audited National Research Program compliance data. TY2017-2019 through TY2022 are projections that assume reporting compliance behavior is unchanged since TY2014-2016. The distinction is load-bearing: the projections are not measurements of 2022 behavior.

Tax year vs fiscal year. Tax gap figures are tax-year based. IRS collections and enforcement are fiscal-year based. The two are reported separately and are not netted against each other in this report.

Handling conflicting numbers. Where the IRS revised earlier projections (notably TY2021, which moved between the 2023 and 2024 releases), this report uses the most recent revised figure from Publication 5869 (October 2024) and notes the revision and its cause. Where the IRS states a figure as approximate or “less than $0.5 billion,” that qualifier is preserved.

Derived figures. The three synthesis insights are arithmetic combinations of IRS figures, with formulas and inputs stated. They are not independent estimates of noncompliance.

Data limitations. The IRS states its projections under-measure corporation income tax, flow-through entities, foreign and illegal income, digital assets, and pandemic credits. No standard errors are published because the methodology is heterogeneous. All projection figures carry sampling, measurement, estimation, coverage, and projection error.

Date of last update: 2026-06-29.

Source quality ranking

Tier 1 (primary government and official statistical sources):
– IRS, Research, Applied Analytics & Statistics, “Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022,” Publication 5869 (Rev. 10-2024). The single authoritative source for the component and tax-type breakdowns.
– IRS news release IR-2024-262, “IRS releases 2022 tax gap projections; voluntary compliance rate among taxpayers remains steady,” October 10, 2024.
– IRS, “The Tax Gap,” statistics page (irs.gov/statistics/irs-the-tax-gap).
– IRS Data Book FY2025 (Publication 55-B, released June 5, 2026) and FY2024 (released May 2025), for collections and enforcement.
– U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-23-106448 and GAO High-Risk Series, for independent assessment.
– Congressional Budget Office, “How Changes in Funding for the IRS Affect Revenues” (publication 60037) and related scores.

Tier 2 (credible analysis citing primary data): Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and Bipartisan Policy Center analyses were reviewed for context but no figure in this report rests on them.

Tier 3 (journalism): Tax Notes coverage of the IRS releases was used only to locate primary documents.

Excluded: Any third-party “true tax gap” estimates that add unmeasured offshore or illegal-income figures were excluded because they are not produced from a verifiable primary methodology. Garbled figures from machine extraction of PDF tables were discarded and replaced only with figures confirmed in clean primary text.

Citation format (for major statistics)

• Gross/net tax gap, components, by-tax-type: Source: Internal Revenue Service, Research, Applied Analytics & Statistics, Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022, Publication 5869 (Rev. 10-2024), October 2024.
• VCR and the $46B-per-point figure: Source: Internal Revenue Service, News Release IR-2024-262, October 10, 2024.
• Collections and enforcement: Source: Internal Revenue Service Data Book, Fiscal Year 2024, Publication 55-B, May 2025; and Fiscal Year 2025 Data Book, June 2026.
• Enforcement ROI: Source: Congressional Budget Office, How Changes in Funding for the IRS Affect Revenues, 2024.
• Independent assessment: Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-23-106448, February 27, 2023.

Journalist-friendly additions

Most quotable statistics

• “The U.S. tax gap was a projected $696 billion gross and $606 billion net for Tax Year 2022.” (IRS, Oct. 2024)
• “Americans voluntarily and timely pay about 85 percent of the federal tax they owe, a rate that has barely moved in 20 years.” (IRS, Oct. 2024)
• “Underreporting alone, at $539 billion, is roughly 77 percent of the entire tax gap.” (IRS, Oct. 2024)
• “Income with little or no third-party reporting is misreported at 55 percent; wages are misreported at 1 percent.” (IRS, Oct. 2024)
• “Each one-point gain in voluntary compliance is worth about $46 billion a year.” (IRS, IR-2024-262)

Data limitations (state these when citing)

• TY2020-2022 figures are projections, not measured estimates; the last audited estimate is TY2014-2016.
• The IRS itself says corporation, flow-through, foreign, illegal, digital-asset, and pandemic-credit noncompliance are under-measured.
• No standard errors are published.
• Collections (fiscal year) and the tax gap (tax year) are not directly comparable.

Downloadable dataset: recommended fields (CSV columns)

tax_year, period_type (estimate/projection), metric (gross_gap/net_gap/vcr/ncr/component/by_tax_type), tax_type, component, value_usd_billions, share_of_gross_pct, source_publication, source_url, release_date, notes_limitations.

150-word press summary

The Internal Revenue Service projects the U.S. gross tax gap, the difference between federal tax owed and paid on time, at $696 billion for Tax Year 2022, with a net gap of $606 billion after late payments and enforcement. The voluntary compliance rate held at 85.0 percent, essentially flat for two decades, indicating the rising dollar gap reflects economic growth rather than worse behavior. Underreporting drives 77 percent of the gap ($539 billion); individual income tax is the largest tax-type component at $514 billion gross. The IRS stresses these are projections built on TY2014-2016 audit data, not new measurements, and that corporate, foreign, and digital-asset noncompliance are under-measured. In Fiscal Year 2025 the IRS collected about $5.3 trillion in gross revenue. The Congressional Budget Office estimates each dollar of IRS enforcement spending returns about $2.50. The Government Accountability Office keeps tax-law enforcement on its High-Risk List.

Five suggested headlines

1. “America’s Tax Gap Hit a Projected $696 Billion in 2022. Here’s Exactly Where It Comes From.”
2. “85 Percent and Steady: Why the Tax Gap Keeps Growing Even as Compliance Holds.”
3. “Underreporting Is 77 Percent of the U.S. Tax Gap. Most of It Is Hidden Business Income.”
4. “The $46 Billion Question: What One Point of Tax Compliance Is Actually Worth.”
5. “Wages Misreported at 1 Percent, Side Income at 55 Percent: The Tax Gap’s Visibility Problem.”

Ten FAQs (answered with verified statistics)

1. What is the U.S. tax gap right now? A projected $696 billion gross and $606 billion net for Tax Year 2022 (IRS, Oct. 2024).
2. Is that a measurement or a projection? A projection; the last audited estimate is TY2014-2016 at $496 billion gross (IRS Pub 5869).
3. What is the voluntary compliance rate? 85.0 percent for TY2022 (IRS).
4. Which component is largest? Underreporting, at $539 billion or about 77 percent (IRS).
5. Which tax type contributes most? Individual income tax, at $514 billion gross and $447 billion net (IRS).
6. How much do corporations contribute? About $44 billion of underreporting and a $40 billion net gap for TY2022, a figure the IRS calls under-measured (IRS Pub 5869).
7. How much does the IRS recover? A projected $90 billion of the TY2022 gross gap through late payments and enforcement (IRS).
8. How much did the IRS collect overall? About $5.3 trillion gross in FY2025 and $5.1 trillion in FY2024 (IRS Data Book).
9. What would closing the gap be worth? Each one-point VCR gain is about $46 billion a year (IRS IR-2024-262); CBO estimates roughly $2.50 returned per enforcement dollar.
10. Why does the gap keep rising if compliance is flat? Because total tax liability grows with the economy; the IRS attributes the increase mainly to economic growth, not worse behavior (IRS Pub 5869).

Sources

1. Internal Revenue Service, Research, Applied Analytics & Statistics. “Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022,” Publication 5869 (Rev. 10-2024), October 2024. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p5869.pdf
2. Internal Revenue Service. News Release IR-2024-262, “IRS releases 2022 tax gap projections; voluntary compliance rate among taxpayers remains steady,” October 10, 2024. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USIRS/bulletins/3bb3f60
3. Internal Revenue Service. “The Tax Gap,” statistics page. https://www.irs.gov/statistics/irs-the-tax-gap
4. Internal Revenue Service. “The tax gap,” newsroom page (historical series). https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/the-tax-gap
5. Internal Revenue Service. Tax Gap Projections Methodology, Publication 6031 (Rev. 10-2024). https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6031.pdf
6. Internal Revenue Service. Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014-2016, Publication 1415. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p1415.pdf
7. Internal Revenue Service Data Book, Fiscal Year 2025 (Publication 55-B), released June 5, 2026; summarized in IRS news release IR-2026-74. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-describes-agencys-activities-in-fiscal-year-2025-data-book and https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p55b.pdf
8. Internal Revenue Service Data Book, Fiscal Year 2024 (Publication 55-B), May 2025. https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-irs-data-book
9. U.S. Government Accountability Office. “Tax Gap: Modest Reductions in the Gap Could Yield Large Fiscal Benefits,” GAO-23-106448, February 27, 2023. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106448
10. U.S. Government Accountability Office. “Tax Gap: IRS Should Take Steps to Ensure Continued Improvement in Estimates,” GAO-24-106449. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106449
11. U.S. Government Accountability Office. High-Risk Series, GAO-25-107743. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107743
12. Congressional Budget Office. “How Changes in Funding for the IRS Affect Revenues,” publication 60037, 2024. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60037

Last updated: 2026-06-29. All figures labeled by tax year or fiscal year and by status (estimate vs projection). Compiled by The Ledgerism Brief from primary U.S. government sources.